[caption id="" align="alignleft" width="512"] Photo: Israel Defense Forces[/caption]

Developments this week highlighted the destabilizing role played by Iran's conventional arsenal, in regions far beyond the Islamic Republic's immediate neighborhood and in contexts independent of its military and terrorist efforts against Israel.

Inside Syria, opposition leaders stressed to CNN that Iran's military coordination with Bashar al-Assad's regime has escalated, and that the Iranians are now providing fixed-wing drones to the Syrian government. The new reports come in the aftermath of intelligence published in September that documented how "planes are flying from Iran to Syria via Iraq on an almost daily basis, carrying IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) personnel and tens of tons of weapons." The Associated Pressreported at the end of the week that the death toll from the Syrian war had crossed 36,000.

Meanwhile Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi took credit this week for the drone that Hezbollah dispatched into Israel from Lebanon in early October, which penetrated Israeli airspace before being intercepted and shot down by the Israeli Air Force.

Iran's transfer of advanced air assets to its Syrian and Lebanese proxies calls into question several lines of analysis from Western foreign policy experts, some of whom had insisted that Assad's regime and Hezbollah's leaders ought to be diplomatically engaged in order to split them from their Iranian sponsors. Assad's reliance on the IRGC and Hezbollah's willingness to provoke Israel on behalf of Tehran indicate robust alliances and strategic calculations resistant to Western efforts.

In Sudan, two Iranian warships docked in Port Sudan on the Red Sea. State-controlled Iranian media described the naval group's purpose as promoting "peace and friendship," but the arrival came just after an explosion at an Iranian-linked Sudanese weapons factory brought renewed international scrutiny to the relationship between Khartoum and Tehran. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has described that relationship as "deeply rooted," and Israeli officials have extensively outlined how Sudan operates as a pipeline for Iranian weapons destined for Palestinian terrorists.

Iran's naval ambitions, which include efforts to project power into the Red Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean, have heightened fears among U.S. and Middle East analysts that Iran is "rapidly gaining new capabilities to strike at U.S. warships" and have led the U.S. Navy to upgrade its defensive capabilities against Iranian threats.

Western diplomats are expressing concern that Argentina is preparing to paper over the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, which killed 85 people and wounded approximately 300 more, as part of a broader campaign by Caracas to boost ties with Iran and facilitate the Islamic Republic's penetration of Latin America.

In 2007 Argentinian prosecutors declared that they "deem[ed] it proven" that the attack was ordered by "the highest authorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran which directed Hezbollah." Argentina has since sought the extradition for the trial of five high-ranking Iranian officials linked to the bombing, including Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi and former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

This week however, Argentinian officials began a series of meetings with Iranian counterparts over the bombing, and are expected to soften their requests for Iran to fully comply with the extradition requests. Argentina's decision to hold the meetings drew rebukes from the United States and Israel. The Israeli government issued a formal statement expressing "disappointment" and U.S. Assistant Secretary of Western Hemisphere Affairs Roberta S. Jacobson, emphasizing the need to isolate Iran, declared that the United States was not "optimistic" that the sessions would be productive.

While Iran has denied any involvement in the attack, wide recognition of its role has complicated Tehran's efforts to expand its influence into South and Central America. Interpol has long had a "red notice" alert against Vahidi, for instance, and the Iranian defense minister was recently forced to leave Bolivia rather than face arrest during a visit orchestrated by Bolivia's Defense Ministry.

Were Argentinian officials to formally drop their extradition requests, Iranian efforts to infiltrate Latin America - already a subject of intense bipartisan concern spanning Congress and the Department of Defense - would be greatly facilitated. According to U.S. Ambassador Roger F. Noriega, speaking specifically about Iranian-Venezuelan ties during a briefing organized by The Israel Project, Iran's efforts already constitute "a threat to [American] security." Hezbollah operatives are known to operate along the U.S.-Mexican border.

Amb. Noriega also outlined for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee the extensive degree to which Iran has increased its diplomatic representation in Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Argentina and Brazil.

Venezuela has in particular been critical in facilitating Tehran's penetration of the region, and even helped arrange this week's dialogue between Argentina and Iran over the 1994 bombing. Recently re-elected Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has declared his ties with Iran to be a "holy matter," and Venezuela has been crucial in helping Iran evade the consequences of sanctions on its energy industry.

[caption id="" align="alignleft" width="210"] House damaged last week by rocket from Gaza[/caption]

Terrorists in Gaza fired deadly Grad rockets at the Israeli city of Beersheba Sunday, forcing officials to close schools and keep tens of thousands of children home for safety.

Overnight mortars were also fired at Israeli towns bordering Gaza in violation of an Egyptian-brokered “lull” in which the Iran-backed Hamas terrorist organization was supposed to stop shooting at Israeli civilians.

So far in 2012 terrorists in Gaza have fired at least 743 explosives at Israeli civilian targets.

Hamas seized control of Gaza in a bloody 2007 military coup and refuses to enter into peace negotiations with Israel. Media reports erroneously reported last week’s agreement as a “ceasefire” or “truce,” but Hamas refuses to use either word and negotiations are always conducted by a third party instead of directly.

Hamas, the local offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, is committed to Israel’s destruction and replacing Israel with an Islamic Palestinian state. Hamas leaders only agree to the Arabic term meaning “lull” in order to preserve their ideological stance of never negotiating with Israel, nor accepting anything resembling cessation of armed conflict.

Last week, terrorists fired at least 96 rockets and mortars at Israel that severely damaged houses and wounded four people, two of them critically. The Grad rockets fired at Beersheba contain a warhead packed with hundreds of steel ball bearings. When such rockets explode, they spray the steel in a deadly swath like hundreds of bullets.

In previous attacks against Beersheba, schools and residences suffered direct hits, and officials were taking no chances in their decision to keep children home and close to bomb shelters.

Egypt needs to do more to crack down on Islamist violence and attacks in the Sinai Peninsula, a top Israeli lawmaker said this week as Egyptian security officials warned that Salafist terrorists are preparing to conduct car bomb attacks in the Sinai using Egyptian government vehicles.

“Sinai has become lawless territory,” Israeli Vice Prime Minister Moshe Ya’alon said Thursday. “It’s a question of Egypt deciding to assert its sovereignty the way it should and acting resolutely against terrorists. I hope that’s what will happen. It hasn’t happened yet.”

Terrorists active in the Sinai Peninsula, taking advantage of the four-day Muslim holiday Eid al-Adha, plan to target tourists and resorts in the area. An Egyptian security official reported that "A number of cars have been stolen recently. One of them belongs to the governor of the north Sinai district, and another belongs to the district's national security advisor."

The region, which has grown increasingly lawless in the aftermath of the Egyptian Arab Spring that saw the overthrow of the regime of President Hosni Mubarak, has witnessed terrorist attacks on both Egyptian and Israeli civilians and targets.

Terrorist elements, largely backed by Iran, have dug a labyrinth of tunnels underneath the border between the Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza Strip, which are often used to smuggle goods as well as crude and advanced weaponry.

The official but chilly peace that exists between Israel and Egypt also has been called into question by some Brotherhood officials who have been outspoken in their desire to modify the treaty in areas such as troop and equipment deployments in the Sinai.

The Arab Spring has also empowered hardline elements who have called for the modification or eradication of Egypt’s ling-standing peace treaty with Israel. Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood-linked president, Mohammed Morsi, has himself suggested in numerous interviews that the context of the treaty needs to be revaluated.

Last week, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood elected Saad al-Katani as its new leader, filling a slot left open when Morsi formally resigned from the group in order to assume office. The vote was considered a relative victory for hardliners in the Muslim Brotherhood, with Katani defeating the more moderate Essam el-Erian for the position and declaring that he seeks to "implement righteous rule based on Islamic sharia laws."

The election came in the aftermath of the Muslim Brotherhood's supreme leader, Mohammed Badie, being quoted to the effect that "Jews have increased the corruption in the world, and shed the blood of (Muslims)."

Jewish groups charged with monitoring anti-Jewish hatred have raised alarm bells over the speech and other explicitly anti-Semitic incitement at the highest levels of the Muslim Brotherhood. A new video showing Morsi's participation in a prayer calling for the destruction and dispersal of Jews is likely to heighten those concerns.

Did you know that Hezbollah is backed by Iran? Hezbollah, like al Qaeda, is a terrorist group whose influence extends across the Middle East. Hezbollah not only receives political support from Iran, but also weapons, funding and training, which it then uses to carry out terrorist attacks and provide assistance to Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria. Click on the infographic below to see the full image, in TIP’s Flickr gallery.

After weeks of escalatory rocket fire and a cross-border bombing attack that critically injured an Israeli officer, Palestinian groups led by Iran-backed Hamas launched at least 72 rockets and mortars at Israeli civilians overnight.

The barrage means that Hamas and other terror groups have fired at least 729 rockets and mortars into Israel in 2012, surpassing the 653 fired in 2011. The pace and density of the attacks also have dramatically increased in recent weeks, raising the possibility that Hamas has evaluated the regional situation and made a strategic decision to escalate its targeting of Israeli civilians.

Earlier this month Hamas launched a shoulder-mounted anti-aircraft missile at an Israeli helicopter, another first. The rocket, a Russian-made Strela-2, reportedly came from Libya and was smuggled into the Gaza Strip via tunnels running from Egypt.

Hamas leaders may feel that the regional situation has changed the strategic environment in their favor. The overnight rocket barrage from Gaza immediately follows the visit of Qatar's Emir Hamad bin Khalifa A-Thani to the territory, a much-publicized state visit that provided a diplomacy victory for Hamas. Hamas leaders used the Emir’s presence to explicitly declare that they had overcome Israel's attempt to diplomatically isolate the terror group.

Meanwhile the Muslim Brotherhood ascension in Egypt has created the expectation that Hamas leaders will be able to evade and erode Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip.

Without either strong international condemnation or targeted military action, it is unlikely that Palestinian terror groups will change their strategic calculations, which all but guarantees further escalations against Israeli civilians.

BACKGROUND

HAMAS and other Iran-backed terror groups in Gaza have dramatically escalated their attacks on Israel within the last two days, launching at least 72 rockets overnight Wednesday after critically wounding an IDF officer who was on a routine patrol with a roadside bomb attack. More than 130 rockets have been fired at Israel in the past week. These attacks – the biggest attack from Gaza since the end of June 2012, when more than 50 rockets were fired over four days – have targeted Israeli civilians throughout the south of the country.

HAMAS is preparing for conflict, recreating the conditions that led up to the group’s December 2008 war with Israel. It has remilitarized civilian installations, including a mosque housing explosives and rocket launchers. Israel responded to the attacks by targeting terror infrastructure in the Gaza Strip, including this mosque (http://is.gd/irz2RX).

• Hamas’s tactics constitute a double war crime: using civilian installations in the Gaza Strip to target civilian installations in Israel.
• Hamas has returned to militarizing mosques and other civilian buildings. During the 2008 war, Hamas transformed up to 100 mosques into depots and bases (http://is.gd/r74Ruu).
• The attacks mark a return to targeting vulnerable civilian infrastructure, especially infrastructure involving children. The attack overnight hit several homes. An attack two weeks ago scored a direct hit on a children’s’ petting zoo, killing several of the animals. In the lead-up to Israel’s December 2008 war, Palestinian groups had openly bragged about timing their attacks to when schoolchildren were physically traveling to school (http://is.gd/IcVGvk).

These attacks follow a deliberate escalation which has taken place over the last week and a half:

• October 24: At least 72 rockets were fired into southern Israel from Gaza, the largest escalation of attacks this year. Schools were canceled as more than one million residents were ordered to stay in shelters. Rockets scored direct hits on homes, and three foreign workers were injured after a rocket landed in the Eshkol region. The attacks were claimed by Hamas’s military wing and the Popular Resistance Committee (http://is.gd/8mcXyO).
• October 23: An IDF officer suffered critical wounds after being hit by a roadside bomb along the border between Israel and the Gaza Strip. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine claimed responsibility for the attack (http://is.gd/8cHsOP).
• October 11-17: More than 60 rockets and mortars were fired by Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other forces into Israel. Terror groups also tried to shoot down an Israeli Air Force helicopter with a surface-to-air missile (http://is.gd/YrTVNw).

RISK OF MAJOR CONFLICT – HAMAS EMBOLDEND BY REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

Regional turmoil, the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, and support from Qatar and Iran has emboldened Hamas and other terror groups, creating conditions that risk escalation.

• The rocket barrage from Gaza immediately follows the visit of Qatar's Emir Hamad bin Khalifa A-Thani, a much-publicized state visit that Hamas hailed as a diplomacy victory and that was condemned by the rival Fatah organization that controls the Palestinian Authority. Hamas leaders used the visit to explicitly declare that they had overcome attempts to diplomatically isolate the terror group.
• The Muslim Brotherhood ascension in Egypt, to Gaza’s south, has given Hamas new maneuvering room and the promise of breaking out of Israel’s blockade on the Gaza Strip that the group controls. Hamas leaders feel confident enough in their ability to resupply and rearm that they’re willing to risk an Israeli ground operation.

HAMAS IS CLAIMING CREDIT FOR THE HUGE ESCALATION.

• These attacks signal a massive escalation by Hamas, both in terms of the sheer numbers of rockets and in tactics. It is the first time since June 2012 that Hamas has launched a sustained rocket and mortar attack. Israel’s responses have thus far been limited to restoring deterrence, but after the overnight rocket barrage Israeli leaders may find it to degrade Hamas’s rocket arsenal directly.
• Likewise, there is a political and strategic escalation by Hamas, with Hamas explicitly claiming the attacks. The group had not claimed rocket fire since attacking Israel in June, in the aftermath of the deadly Sinai terror attack and subsequent exchange of fire. The escalation calls into question analysis that the group was maintaining a ceasefire with Israel for internal political reasons.

IRAN-BACKED GROUPS ARE WORKING TOGETHER – Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other Palestinian groups are coordinating with each other to launch terror attacks.

The attacks signal that Hamas has not moved away from the Iranian camp. The Palestinian group closely cooperated in the attacks with the Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Al-Qassam Brigade spokesman Abu Obeida emphasized through Palestinian outlets the “high-level of coordination between the resistance factions in the management of the confrontation with the Zionist occupation” (http://is.gd/HJ1YMB).

The Israeli Navy successfully intercepted a Gaza-bound boat, the Estelle, that was carrying minimal aid and a group of activists. The following explains Israel's position regarding this boat, the situation in Gaza and the legality of Israel's blockade:

Activists are attempting to break Israel’s legal naval blockade of Gaza with the Swedish-owned clipper Estelle. Israel imposed a blockade on the Gaza Strip after it was seized by the Iranian-backed terror group Hamas during a bloody coup in 2007.

Israel’s lawful naval blockade is designed to prevent weapons, rockets and explosives from reaching Hamas, which uses Gaza as a base for regular rocket and other terror attacks against Israel. On several occasions Israel has intercepted ships bringing arms to Gaza.

In September 2011, a United Nations report on a Turkish convoy to Gaza on May 31, 2010 was released. It found that Israel’s security blockade of Gaza is legal and appropriate but Israeli forces that tried to deter the flotilla from reaching Gaza used excessive force. The report, however, states that Israeli commandos that boarded the Mavi Marmara, one of the flotilla’s ships, faced organized and violent resistance.

Israel consistently urges flotilla participants to deliver any goods on board through established channels, such as the Ashdod port or Gaza-Israel border crossings. “The appropriate way to meet needs in Gaza was through legitimate crossings,” said U.N. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Robert Serry in a briefing to the Security Council in September 2010.

The U.N. report found there is no humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and all products intended for Gaza should be sent in coordination with Israel and the Palestinian Authority via the land crossings.

In April 2011, Mathilde de Riedmatten, deputy director of the Red Cross in Gaza, said that there is no necessity to break the Israeli security cordon because there is no humanitarian crisis in Gaza. “There is no humanitarian crisis in Gaza,” said Riedmatten. “Israel has the legitimate right to protect the civilian population,” she added.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement regarding theEstelleon Oct. 20: "Even the people who were on the ship know that there is no humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Their entire objective was to create a provocation and blacken Israel's name. If human rights were really important to these activists, they would sail to Syria. We will continue to take strong and determined action to defend our borders,"

In July 2010, Israel eased its blockade of Hamas-controlled Gaza allowing in all goods other than those that can serve terrorist purposes. Up to 400 trucks enter Gaza daily.

The West Bank and Gaza’s economy (combined) grew approximately seven percent in 2010, according to the International Monetary Fund. Much of the progress is attributed to better security and improved cooperation between the PA and Israel.

Israel has increased cooperation between its government, the PA and international organizations to improve the standard of life of the civilian population in Gaza and the West Bank. These projects are in the areas of health, infrastructure in sewage, water and housing, and in education.

Increasingly pitched fears that the Syrian civil war will escalate into a regional conflict were heightened Friday as a deadly car bomb in Beirut's predominantly Christian Ashrafiya district killed eight people, including an intelligence officer who was one of the most popular figures in Lebanon's pro-Western and anti-Syrian March 14th movement.

The officer, Col. Wissam al-Hassan, was head of the Information Branch of Lebanon's Internal Security Forces, one of the country's two state intelligence services and considered to be aligned against the Assad regime and its Iranian-backed Hezbollah allies. At least 78 others were injured in the attack.

Hassan's murder, which took place near the headquarters of the Christian Phalange party, threatens to reignite the sectarian tensions behind Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war and which continue to plague Lebanon. March 14th supporters, quoted in Arabic sources, have linked the murder to Syria and Hezbollah. March 14th Parliamentarian Michel Pharaon speculates that the bombing site was chosen "because it is in the heart of the capital and it is a Christian neighborhood."

Hassan was one of the central figures behind the arrest of former Lebanese Information Minister Michel Samaha on charges of colluding with Assad regime officials to conduct terror attacks and incite sectarian strife inside Lebanon. Hassan was also at the forefront of the investigation into the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, who was killed by a car bomb in February 2005. The terror attack ignited the Cedar Revolution that forced Syrian troops to withdraw from Lebanese territories, and Hassan later presented evidence to a U.N. tribunal investigating the attack which implicated Syrian-directed Hezbollah agents.

March 14th supporters have flooded into the streets in protest, and there are confirmed reports of burning tires in Beirut and unconfirmed reports of gunfire exchanges in northern Lebanon.

Arab media analysts on Al Jazeera English revealed that al-Hassan had just returned to Beirut, and speculated that the precise targeting indicates that Lebanon's intelligence services have been seriously penetrated. A loss of faith in Lebanese state institutions will complicate attempts to stabilize the situation, and will dramatically heighten the risk of an escalatory spiral.

Sectarian tensions in Lebanon had already risen sharply in recent weeks in reaction to Hezbollah's increasingly open cross-border military support for Assad. Backed by Iran, Hezbollah militarily controls southern Lebanon and politically dominates the country. Its support for Assad, perceived to be at the behest of the Syrian leader's Iranian allies, has undermined the analysis of some Western specialists to the effect that Hezbollah had an indigenous Lebanese movement pursuing Lebanese interests.

Hezbollah's behavior instead seems to confirm the recent evaluation of Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Ron Prosor, who blasted Iran for seeking to turn Lebanon into an "outpost for terror” and implied that Hezbollah was an overseas proxy of the Iranian regime.

In August 2005 Israel fully withdrew from the Gaza Strip in order to provide breathing room from a nascent Palestinian state. By the middle of June 2007, Hamas had seized the territory from its rival Fatah organization and had begun to go about establishing a "Taliban state." Since then Hamas has waged a rocket war against Israel, which the Iran-backed terror group has vowed to destroy.

A generation of Israeli children has grown up under the shadow of incessant rocket and mortar barrages. In 2008 a study showed that 75 percent to 94 percent of children aged 4-18 in nearby Sderot exhibited symptoms of post-traumatic stress.

Below are selections from a TIP YouTube collection documenting children's struggles as they cope with Hamas rocket and mortar attacks. Click on the photos to go to the selected videos, or view TIP's full YouTube playlist on the issue: TIP's Collection - Israeli Children Cowering in Terror From Rockets

Sderot Kids Documentary (yashka83 / http://is.gd/9u0QmU)	Sderot Girls (ChabadTelethon / http://is.gd/MwUtZX)
Sderot, Israel: Life Under Constant Terrorism from Gaza (TheDavidProject2002 / http://is.gd/jkoaMk)	Kids from South of Israel in Park (Danielle Schreiber / http://is.gd/YAvGMK)

Increasingly pitched fears that the Syrian civil war will escalate into a regional conflict were heightened Friday as a deadly car bomb in Beirut's predominantly Christian Ashrafiya district killed eight people, including an intelligence officer who was one of the most popular figures in Lebanon's pro-Western and anti-Syrian March 14th movement.

The officer, Col. Wissam al-Hassan, was head of the Information Branch of Lebanon's Internal Security Forces, one of the country's two state intelligence services and considered to be aligned against the Assad regime and its Iranian-backed Hezbollah allies. At least 78 others were injured in the attack.

Hassan's murder, which took place near the headquarters of the Christian Phalange party, threatens to reignite the sectarian tensions behind Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war and which continue to plague Lebanon. March 14th supporters, quoted in Arabic sources, have linked the murder to Syria and Hezbollah. March 14th Parliamentarian Michel Pharaon speculates that the bombing site was chosen "because it is in the heart of the capital and it is a Christian neighborhood."

Hassan was one of the central figures behind the arrest of former Lebanese Information Minister Michel Samaha on charges of colluding with Assad regime officials to conduct terror attacks and incite sectarian strife inside Lebanon. Hassan was also at the forefront of the investigation into the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, who was killed by a car bomb in February 2005. The terror attack ignited the Cedar Revolution that forced Syrian troops to withdraw from Lebanese territories, and Hassan later presented evidence to a U.N. tribunal investigating the attack which implicated Syrian-directed Hezbollah agents.

March 14th supporters have flooded into the streets in protest, and there are confirmed reports of burning tires in Beirut and unconfirmed reports of gunfire exchanges in northern Lebanon.

Arab media analysts on Al Jazeera English revealed that al-Hassan had just returned to Beirut, and speculated that the precise targeting indicates that Lebanon's intelligence services have been seriously penetrated. A loss of faith in Lebanese state institutions will complicate attempts to stabilize the situation, and will dramatically heighten the risk of an escalatory spiral.

Sectarian tensions in Lebanon had already risen sharply in recent weeks in reaction to Hezbollah's increasingly open cross-border military support for Assad. Backed by Iran, Hezbollah militarily controls southern Lebanon and politically dominates the country. Its support for Assad, perceived to be at the behest of the Syrian leader's Iranian allies, has undermined the analysis of some Western specialists to the effect that Hezbollah had an indigenous Lebanese movement pursuing Lebanese interests.

Hezbollah's behavior instead seems to confirm the recent evaluation of Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Ron Prosor, who blasted Iran for seeking to turn Lebanon into an "outpost for terror” and implied that Hezbollah was an overseas proxy of the Iranian regime.