- Egyptian presidential frontrunner commits to Camp David peace treaty, as allies urge Hamas to recognize Israel
The Iranian Foreign Ministry on Wednesday angrily denounced reports printed by Western outlets alleging that the Islamic republic had supplied Syria's Bashar al-Assad regime with chlorine-filled chemical weapons (CWs), accusing the Daily Telegraph in particular of being a "Zionist news outlet" that "spreads lies to deviate the world's public opinion from realities." Observers have become increasingly vocal in condemning what analysts describe as a coordinated campaign by Syrian to target rebel-heavy areas with the weapons. The campaign had - per the New York Times - "overshadowed" reports that progress was being made in eliminating other parts of Assad's nonconventional arsenal. Syria had agreed to join the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and destroy its CW stockpile as part of a deal hammered out last September to avert what seemed to be impending U.S. strikes, after the regime had widely been accused of crossing a red line set by the Obama administration against the use of such weapons. The CWC does not ban possession of chlorine, which has industrial uses beyond the battlefield, but weaponizing the substance let alone deploying it is prohibited. The Chinese had been quick in announcing an investigation into whether the weapons had a link to Beijing, and had subsequently denied involvement. The controversy over chlorine weapons comes as progress has stalled in destroying even the CWC-proscribed portions of Syria's arsenal. The chief of the mission charged with destroying those weapons said this week that the last unsecured containers were currently inaccessible on account of nearby fighting. Washington has traditionally shown little patience for such arguments, accusing Damascus of dragging its feet and manipulating the situation on the ground to avoid handing over its weapons. The Americans believe that Syria has been looking to retain portions of its nonconventional arsenal to use "as leverage in a dispute with the international community over the future of facilities used to store the deadly agents."
Several outlets on Thursday reported on Congressional efforts to reassert a measure of control over the trajectory of nuclear negotiations with Iran, with members of the House of Representatives making a variety of moves over the last few days to monitor the status of ongoing talks and to establish acceptable parameters on any deal. Politico's influential Morning Defense bulletin took note of "an amendment from Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.) calling for additional restrictions on a potential nuclear deal with Iran, including that Iran cease its support of terror groups and its ballistic missile program." An initial request for a roll call was withdrawn, and the language was approved by voice vote. Meanwhile the Washington Free Beacon reported on efforts by Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-IN) to "legally force the White House into sharing information and provide oversight over the Iran deal, the text of which the Obama administration has kept locked in a secret location." The Obama administration and key members on the Hill have consistently clashed over the wisdom of the interim Joint Plan of Action (JPA) signed between Iran and the P5+1 global powers, with divisions widening after it appeared that White House officials misled lawmakers and the public about the extent of Iranian concessions regarding uranium enrichment technology, plutonium infrastructure, and ballistic missile development. The situation is a delicate one for the administration, which has reportedly been seeking ways to circumvent Congress should Washington commit to undoing sanctions on Iran. Both supporters and skeptics of a potential deal agree that such efforts are unlikely to prove sufficiently robust to succeed.
Analysis published this week by the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre (BICOM) conveyed a variety of indicators - ranging from public data about Israeli-Egyptian energy agreements to recent statements by Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi - converging on the conclusion that Cairo is making a concentrated effort to boost and insulate bilateral ties with the Jewish state. The write-up specifically focused on recent statements by Sisi, who is widely expected to breeze to the presidency in upcoming elections, committing to upholding the peace treaty with Jerusalem and suggesting that relations could warm further in the aftermath of an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement. Meanwhile Amr Mussa - a top liberal politician and a notable Sisi ally - called on the Palestinian Hamas faction to recognize Israel in order to boost efforts to establish a viable Palestinian state. Mussa more specifically declared that "Hamas should declare its acceptance of the Arab initiative of 2002, which is the map of normalization and recognition of the state of Israel together with the establishing of the Palestinian state and the withdrawal of the occupied territory." Agence France-Presse (AFP) read the remarks against the backdrop of a recent unity agreement announced between Hamas and the rival Fatah faction. The announcement had been blasted by some analysts for providing Hamas with a lifeline, after almost a year of systematic Egyptian campaigns to economically and diplomatically isolate the terror group. AFP noted that "the deputy leader of Hamas, Moussa Abu Marzuq, insisted earlier this week that despite the unity deal his group would never recognize Israel," a stance which puts the Palestinians in tension with almost a decade of international demands and with black-letter American law.
The Wall Street Journal on Thursday conveyed commitments from Iran's oil minister vowing to boost the country's crude exports despite what the outlet described as "a cap agreed upon with the international community." The interim Joint Plan of Action (JPA) - which Iran and the P5+1 global powers had agreed upon last November - eased energy sanctions on the Islamic republic, permitting Tehran to export one million barrels per day (bpd). Iran has busted through that limit every month for six straight months, generating fears that the inflow in foreign currency and capital would erode the leverage of Western negotiators seeking to extract concessions regarding the country's atomic program. The dynamic had also seemed to align with the predictions of JPA critics, who had worried that the JPA's partial erosion of the international sanctions regime would spiral into broader economic gains for Iran. The Obama administration had pushed back against those critics by insisting that so-called core sanctions remained robust. Energy-driven economic stabilization has nonetheless long been identified as a particular vulnerability in the White House's gambit. Iran has sought to split Washington from its European allies, and in recent days Iranian Deputy Energy Minister Ali Majedi floated the possibility of supplying the Continent with gas and fuel. Against the backdrop of Russian energy maneuvering in the context of the Ukraine crisis, Majedi declared that "Iran can be a reliable partner for Europe: there are sufficient energy resources for cooperation with European countries and numerous projects exist in this connection." Writing in Forbes this week, Michael Lynch energy expert Michael Lynch took issue with those who dismissed "[t]he suggestion that Iran might become a natural gas supplier to Europe as a more secure source than Russian gas," outlining several plausible scenarios for delivery of the energy.